Aurora, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

992
FXUS63 KGID 260559
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1259 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

...Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- After watching heat index solidly "overachieve" Saturday and
  given another round of at least 105-115 heat index expected
  today, our entire forecast area has been upgraded to an
  Extreme Heat Warning valid through 9 PM this evening.

- With Monday not looking quite as concerningly-hot, a Heat
  Advisory "takes back over" valid 9 PM Sunday-10 PM Monday.

- There is a low chance of storms (around 20%) for Sunday
  evening mainly in our Nebraska counties north of I-80 and/or
  west of Highway 281. A strong to marginally-severe storm
  cannot be ruled out...main threat is wind gusts up to 60 MPH.

- A somewhat better chance for at least scattered storms arrives
  mainly Monday afternoon-overnight...again a strong to
  marginally-severe storm is possible especially in our west.

- Closer to normal high temperatures (upper 80s to mid 90s) are
  expected Tuesday through Friday with various, intermittent rain
  and storm chances.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 725 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

-- Regarding the UPGRADE from Heat Advisory to Extreme Heat
 Warning (valid through 9 PM Sunday) that occurred late this
 afternoon:

- Quite honestly, our heat index forecast for this afternoon
  ended up being a solid 5-15 degrees too low, with the majority
  of our CWA seeing at least a few hours of Warning-criteria
  values 110-120 (this is semi-rare territory for our area!).

- This was a classic case of essentially all available
  models/guidance failing to forecast high enough dewpoints...a
  common struggle this time of year when evapotranspiration
  from crops is peaking.

- Given this extreme heat lingering into early evening, limited
  overnight relief due to low temps holding up well into the
  70s, and most importantly another round of widespread 105-115
  heat index expected Sunday, it was decided along with a few
  neighboring offices to upgrade the Advisory to Warning
  effectively immediately and valid through 9 PM Sunday.

- Thereafter, a Heat Advisory "takes back over" from 9 PM Sunday
  through 10 PM Monday, as current expectations are for Monday
  to have lower potential for heat index to exceed 110 degrees,
  and MIGHT even struggle to reach 105 (especially in our north
  half) depending on possible weak convection in the area,
  associated clouds/outflow etc.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

An upper level ridge extends from Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas
northward to Kansas and Nebraska. Winds across north central Kansas
and south central and central Nebraska are mostly light and
variable. Winds are lighter than expected but may increase some out
of the south later this afternoon. Low-level moisture is hanging
around the area longer than expected today (with very little wind to
mix in drier air) with dewpoints mostly in the 70s and 80s. High
temperatures today are expected to reach the mid 90s to low triple
digits. These conditions have resulted in heat index values across
the area generally ranging from around 105 to near 120 degrees! A
Heat Advisory is in effect for the whole area and continues into
Monday evening. Low temperatures tonight are expected to be in the
70s with dewpoint temperatures in the 60s and 70s. There is some
concern that dewpoint temperatures will be higher than what is
currently in the forecast, especially if drier air doesn`t move into
the area. This may lead to fog development as temperatures cool.
Winds will be fairly light (mainly between 5 to 10 MPH but may be
closer to 5 MPH) out of the south. These overnight conditions will
result in limited relief from the heat. If moisture is higher than
expected tonight, overnight lows may also be higher than what is in
the forecast.

The upper ridge will be more centered over the region on Sunday.
Winds will be a little stronger than the previous day Sunday
afternoon (southerly around 10 to 20 MPH with gusts up to around 25
MPH). Sunny to partly cloudy skies will be present. Temperatures
Sunday afternoon are expected to heat up to the mid/upper 90s to
around 105 degrees. The amount of moisture that will be present for
Sunday is still somewhat uncertain with the models not in agreement.
Based on the moisture hanging around longer than expected today,
tend to think that moisture values will be on the higher end.
Temperatures on Sunday are expected to be slightly hotter than
today. An Extreme Heat Warning may be needed for Sunday. Low
temperatures for Sunday night will likely be slightly warmer than
the previous night with some isolated areas in north central Kansas
perhaps with lows around 80 degrees. There is a very slight (15% to
near 20% chance) of showers and storms Sunday evening across
northern portions of the area (mainly north of I-80). There is some
model disagreement on where these storms will occur but the main
risk with these storms will be wind gusts up to around 60 MPH.

Monday has the potential to be the hottest day but there is also a
lot of uncertainty with regards to temperature and moisture.
Generally expecting high temperatures to range from 97 to 103
degrees. Some of the hotter models have temperatures ranging from
around 105 to 110+ degrees! Tend to think these hotter temperatures
are not likely with a weak cold front with easterly winds expected
to begin moving into the area on Monday. The Heat Advisory ends at
10 PM Monday evening. Beginning Monday evening and continuing into
Friday, there are various chances of showers and storms across
portions of the area as shortwaves troughs move overhead. High
temperatures will be cooler beginning Tuesday with the arrival of a
cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
This is a fairly high confidence VFR period, with mainly just
varying degrees of passing mid-high level cloud cover. Odds also
strongly favor (80-90% chance) of remaining rain/thunderstorm-
free, with only the slightest chance of spotty high-based
convection possibly nearing the area late in the period Sunday
evening (this chance currently deemed too low to even justify a
PROB30 group). One other possible thing to watch is a small
chance that visibility could try to at least briefly drop to
low-end VFR/maybe high-end MVFR at some point early this morning
in light fog. Given this outside chance, have maintained a
"hint" with a low-end VFR "6SM BR" visibility group.

Winds should not be a significant issue as prevailing direction
remains largely southerly. Sustained speeds through the bulk of
this morning and again Sunday evening will prevail under 10KT.
However, this afternoon will feature slightly breezier
conditions, with sustained speeds commonly 11-15KT/gusts around 20KT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for
     NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
     Heat Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 PM CDT Monday for
     NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for
     KSZ005>007-017>019.
     Heat Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 PM CDT Monday for
     KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Pfannkuch
DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Pfannkuch